Northern Arizona
Men - Women
2015 - 2016 - 2017
Switch to All-time Team Page
RankNameGradeRating
160  Melanie Townsend SR 20:12
298  Mikayla Malaspina SO 20:33
428  Kylie Goo JR 20:48
478  Paige Gilchrist JR 20:54
754  Emily Roughan SR 21:16
1,065  Karina Ernst SR 21:36
1,163  Miranda Myers SO 21:42
2,053  Carolyn Bethel JR 22:36
2,166  Melanie Zibrat SR 22:44
2,421  Jessie Williams SO 23:03
2,797  Maggie Carruth SO 23:42
National Rank #66 of 344
Mountain Region Rank #10 of 20
Chance of Advancing to Nationals 0.2%
Most Likely Finish 8th at Regional


National Champion 0.0%
Top 5 at Nationals 0.0%
Top 10 at Nationals 0.0%
Top 20 at Nationals 0.1%


Regional Champion 0.0%
Top 5 in Regional 1.6%
Top 10 in Regional 77.2%
Top 20 in Regional 100.0%


Race Performance Ratings


Times listed are adjusted ratings based on performance compared to other runners in race.


RaceDateTeam Rating Melanie Townsend Mikayla Malaspina Kylie Goo Paige Gilchrist Emily Roughan Karina Ernst Miranda Myers Carolyn Bethel Melanie Zibrat Jessie Williams Maggie Carruth
Roy Griak Invitational 09/24 967 20:17 20:32 20:58 21:20 21:38 22:56 22:44
Mesa Thunderbird Classic 10/08 1036 20:29 21:07 20:45 21:10 21:58 22:39 22:40 23:17 22:27
Nuttycombe Wisconsin Invitational (B Race) 10/14 21:26
Nuttycombe Wisconsin Invitational 10/14 860 19:55 20:23 20:43 21:13 22:06
ASU Invitational 10/21 1208 20:52 22:12 22:16 22:28 22:59 23:41
Big Sky Conference 10/28 871 20:17 20:40 20:36 20:56 20:53 21:35 21:34 22:25
Mountain Region Championships 11/11 911 20:21 20:18 21:07 20:52 21:39 21:25 21:30





NCAA Tournament Simulation


Based on results of 2,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament. Numbers in tables represent percentage of times each outcome occured during simulation.



Team Results

Advances to RoundAve FinishAve Score Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
NCAA Championship 0.2% 27.0 655 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
Region Championship 100% 9.0 250 0.1 0.1 0.2 1.3 5.1 13.6 19.5 19.0 18.5 15.4 6.2 1.1 0.3



Individual Results

NCAA ChampionshipAdvances to RoundAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Melanie Townsend 18.9% 100.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
Mikayla Malaspina 1.2% 155.0
Kylie Goo 0.3% 184.0
Paige Gilchrist 0.2% 209.0
Emily Roughan 0.2% 220.0
Karina Ernst 0.2% 242.5
Miranda Myers 0.2% 249.0


RegionalAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Melanie Townsend 24.5 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.9 1.7 1.5 1.9 2.8 2.4 3.0 3.5 3.4 3.3 3.4 4.1 3.6 3.4 3.6 4.3 3.8
Mikayla Malaspina 39.7 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.9 0.8 1.2 1.4 1.3
Kylie Goo 51.7 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1
Paige Gilchrist 56.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
Emily Roughan 75.4
Karina Ernst 93.9
Miranda Myers 99.3




NCAA Championship Selection Detail

Total
Region Finish Chance of Finishing Chance of Advancing Auto At Large Selection No Adv Auto At Large Region Finish
1 2 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
1 1
2 0.1% 100.0% 0.1 0.1 2
3 0.1% 100.0% 0.1 0.1 3
4 0.2% 50.0% 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 4
5 1.3% 1.3 5
6 5.1% 5.1 6
7 13.6% 13.6 7
8 19.5% 19.5 8
9 19.0% 19.0 9
10 18.5% 18.5 10
11 15.4% 15.4 11
12 6.2% 6.2 12
13 1.1% 1.1 13
14 0.3% 0.3 14
15 15
16 16
17 17
18 18
19 19
20 20
Total 100% 0.2% 0.1 0.1 0.1 99.8 0.1 0.2




Points



At large teams are selected based on the number of wins (points) against teams already in the championships. As a result, advancement is predicated on accumulating enough points before the last at-large selection. Accordingly, the points below are the total number of wins against automatic qualifiers or teams selected in the at-large process before the last selection. Minimum, maximum, and average points are number seen in 2,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament.



Received By BeatingChance ReceivedAverage If >0Average
Vanderbilt 6.1% 1.0 0.1
Tulsa 3.4% 1.0 0.0
Oklahoma 1.0% 1.0 0.0
Florida State 0.1% 1.0 0.0
Total 0.1
Minimum 0.0
Maximum 2.0